almuhajabah’s posterous

Although many progressives imagine that the budget reconciliation process is a magic bullet solution, it is actually pretty complicated and will be time-consuming. Details about how it works can be read at Uh Oh - What if reconciliation isn't quick and Reconciliation revisited. I'm certainly no expert but my feeling is that because Obama is presenting a new budget this coming Thursday (February 4), the reconciliation "sidecar" will need to start from scratch because last year's reconciliation instructions have expired. And that means it will need to go through a whole bunch of committees. In the Senate this includes Kent Conrad's Budget Committee, Max Baucus's Finance Committee (remember what happened the last time this committee was involved?), and Tom Harkin's HELP Committee.

The process itself has several "weak points" that Senate Republicans can exploit. They can raise hundreds of points of order, each of which needs to be judged by the Senate Parliamentarian and if the judgment goes against the Democrats, it will take 60 votes to override it. The Republicans can also bring an unlimited number of amendments of any nature and force the Senate to vote on each one before the final vote on the reconciliation bill itself.

The whole process could easily stretch out over one or two months. And where Rahm is right (yes, I dare to say it!) is that if the Senate gets caught up in this and doesn't pass at least a jobs bill first, this will be bad for the Democrats with the public and going into the mid-term elections. We need to get the jobs bill passed as soon as possible, as the first priority.

Fortunately, healthcare reform does not actually need to wait on any of this. The only reason we do not have a healthcare bill passed right now is that the House Democrats are being irrational. They are the ones forcing us to have to go through this long, complex process fraught with danger when they could hold a vote on the Senate bill today. If delay means death for healthcare reform, it is House Democrats that are forcing the delay.

House Democrats, pass the damn bill!

Senate Democrats, pass the jobs bill! Then commit to doing the reconciliation fix through this year's budget process.

Note: See also How to listen to politicians

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Per the 2010 proposed budget from last year (section S-4, "Proposed Budget by Category"), the amount of spending Obama wanted in discretionary non-defense spending for 2011, 2012, and 2013 (line "Other appropriated programs") is as follows:

2011 - $672 billion
2012 - $653 billion
2013 - $661 billion

I may be showing my ignorance here, but the way I read this chart, wasn't he already planning to hold this spending steady ("freeze" it) over the next three years?

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Back in December, I wrote a comment at Al Giordano's blog, The Field, about why I think Obama lets Congress take the lead. It's because he is trying to organize the Senate:

I think that one of the things that Obama may have wanted to achieve with this process is to prove that Congress and especially the Senate is capable of addressing serious national problems in a meaningful way. That its members can come together and work through their differences to pass important legislation.

That means letting them take the lead, even letting them stumble and fall then pick themselves up and keep going. I suspect that Obama did a lot more behind the scenes than we know, especially in terms of putting steel in Harry Reid's spine, but the president's role should be on the sidelines cheering Congress on, not running the whole process himself.

Building a Congress that can actually act as a co-equal branch of goverment will bring benefits both for the rest of the legislative agenda (cap and trade, financial regulation, immigration reform, etc) and also further in the future, especially when there is a Republican president.

A lot of Democrats (including some in Congress) seem to act like small children who cause a mess then cry for Daddy to come fix everything for them (some foreign leaders seem to act the same). This kind of dysfunctional situation is bad for our democracy and bad for the cause of progressive change.

Hopefully, this process has been a step towards a more healthy relationship between the presidency and Congress.

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I work now for a relatively small business, a tech startup. I do have
health insurance now, through my employer's group plan. However, it
isn't a really great plan, with a high deductible meaning I pay for a
lot of things out of pocket.

The Senate bill could help me even now:

* Tax credit for small businesses to help them buy better insurance
* Eventual ability to get voucher from employer to help buy a plan on
the healthcare exchange if it is better (this is actually something
only in the Senate bill, not the House bill - thanks, Senator Wyden!)

Two more reasons for the House to pass the Senate bill.

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When I was unemployed for some time several years ago or working
part-time or as a contractor with no benefits, I couldn't possibly
have afforded to buy health insurance on my own. They never even got
to the point of rejecting me for my pre-existing condition.

We need healthcare reform NOW for all the millions of people who have
been in that position.

House Democrats, please pass the Senate bill, even if that's all you
can get. Among the ways it could have helped me back then:

* Prohibit insurance companies from denying coverage for pre-existing condition
* Subsidies to help pay for insurance
* Medicaid expansion to cover childless adults, if I had been really poor

And there are many more reasons to do it. Please, pass the bill now.

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And by "we" I mean progressives. Not only are too many arguments not based on facts, but too many proposed strategies are not based in reality.

Budget reconciliation is not a magic solution. It is very difficult to use for anything but taxes and appropriations and cannot be used for regulations or consumer protections and the like. "Making them do a real filibuster" won't get legislation passed or make Republicans look bad. Senate procedure simply does not work that way.

Magical thinking is not going to work and we need to stop it.

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